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Aliança pelo Brasil, de Bolsonaro, pode chegar a 2022 sem dinheiro e sem tempo de TV

Projeto de novo partido do presidente da República deve ser lançado nesta quinta em Brasília.

O presidente Jair Bolsonaro lança oficialmente nesta quinta-feira (21) um novo partido, a Aliança pelo Brasil, em meio a incertezas sobre a viabilidade da legenda.

Se não conseguir brechas na Justiça Eleitoral, a nova sigla pode disputar a eleição municipal de 2020 e chegar à corrida presidencial de 2022 sem recursos dos fundos partidário e eleitoral e sem tempo de rádio e TV.

Ainda não há clima nos tribunais superiores para mudar o entendimento atual de que fundo e tempo pertencem ao partido, e não ao deputado.

Hoje, a distribuição do fundo partidário (que financia, com verbas públicas, o funcionamento das legendas) leva em conta os votos obtidos na última eleição para a Câmara, o que não garantiria esses recursos para a nova sigla de Bolsonaro.

As divisões do fundo eleitoral e do tempo de propaganda eleitoral gratuita no rádio e na TV também são feitas com base nos dados das últimas eleições gerais —determinação tida como uma espécie de trava contra a criação desenfreada de novos partidos.

Os aliados de Bolsonaro, no entanto, tratam esse cenário com desdém. O grupo que está à frente da empreitada pela Aliança aposta que o presidente tem capilaridade e influência política suficientes para participar das próximas eleições sem dinheiro e televisão, repetindo, assim, o feito que em 2018 o alçou ao Palácio do Planalto.

Em conversas reservadas, o próprio presidente tem dito que pretende fazer da Aliança o maior partido do país. Ele aposta no peso da cadeira presidencial, além da ascendência de seu clã nas redes sociais, para conquistar filiados, com ou sem mandatos.

Além dos cerca de 30 deputados do PSL que pretendem migrar, os aliados de Bolsonaro já trabalham com a possibilidade de atrair ao menos 20 congressistas de outras siglas de centro.

Dirigentes desses partidos já esperam baixas assim que a Aliança sair do papel e estimam que a legenda de Bolsonaro poderia ter no próximo ano legislativo uma bancada de 50 deputados. Essa previsão tornaria a Aliança a segunda maior da Câmara, ocupando o posto que hoje é do PSL (com 53 deputados).

A avaliação no Congresso é a de que o eventual sucesso da investida de integrantes do PSL por uma brecha jurídica para mudar de partido sem perder o mandato pode estimular migrações em outras legendas.

Hoje, a legislação permite determinadas situações de justa causa, em que deputado ou vereador pode mudar de partido sem perder o mandato. Entre os exemplos estão fusão ou incorporação do partido; mudança substancial ou desvio reiterado do programa; grave discriminação política pessoal; e, no último ano de mandato, sair para disputar eleição.

Não perdem o mandato prefeitos, senadores, governadores e presidente.

A expectativa de aliados de Bolsonaro é a de que a Aliança anuncie em breve seu primeiro governador, de Rondônia. O Coronel Marcos Rocha já indicou ao presidente que deve deixar o PSL.

Segundo líderes partidários, o uso da máquina do governo não deve ser desprezada. Eles afirmam que a caneta da Presidência da República pode ser determinante para que a legenda se torne uma das maiores do país em pouco tempo.

Nesse cenário, avaliam, vai pesar menos o tamanho dos fundos partidário e eleitoral da Aliança e mais a possibilidade de os integrantes do novo partido passarem a ter influência no gabinete presidencial e a ocupar postos importantes no governo.

A convenção inaugural da Aliança ocorrerá nesta quinta, em um hotel em Brasília.

De acordo com aliados do presidente, o novo partido surge com a missão de desfazer a imagem de desagregador de Bolsonaro. Em meio ao clima de intensa polarização no país, o chefe do Executivo se entusiasmou com a ideia de lançar um partido cujo nome remete à união.

Nesta quinta, será dado o primeiro passo no processo de fundação da legenda, com a assinatura do requerimento de registro partidário. Lei de 1995 que rege os partidos políticos determina que esse documento tem de ser assinado por no mínimo 101 pessoas, de ao menos nove estados.

Deverão ser apresentados ainda o estatuto e o programa partidário. Cumprida essa etapa, começa a coleta de assinaturas para que o registro seja aprovado pela Justiça Eleitoral. São necessários 491.967 apoios.

Bolsonaro tem pressa, porque o partido tem de estar criado até o início de abril de 2020 para que possa disputar a eleição municipal.

Nesta quarta-feira (20), em uma reação à decisão de Bolsonaro de criar o novo partido, o Conselho de Ética do PSL começou a analisar os processos contra parlamentares bolsonaristas.

Congressistas como Bia Kicis (DF), Carlos Jordy (RJ), Filipe Barros (PR), Junio Amaral (MG) e Daniel Silveira (RJ) leram comunicado a jornalistas na Câmara em que afirmam estar sofrendo “perseguição política indevida”.

“Ousamos pedir transparência, o que nos foi negado, e a partir desse pleito justo, passamos a sofrer perseguições, constrangimentos, insultos e ameaças”, afirmam.

O texto foi lido pelo líder do governo na Câmara, Major Vitor Hugo (GO).

Não há prazo para que o PSL analise se punirá ou não a ala de dissidentes. Na terça-feira (19), o presidente do PSL, Luciano Bivar (PE), afirmou que o colegiado começa a se reunir nesta semana para ouvir as defesas dos congressistas. As punições podem variar de advertência a expulsão.

O partido alega que os deputados desrespeitaram o estatuto e ofenderam o PSL.

Segundo Vitor Hugo, são 21 os deputados processados —do total de 53 da bancada do PSL na Câmara. Eles afirmaram que a maioria decidiu não comparecer pessoalmente à reunião do conselho. O grupo terá um advogado.

“Não existe possibilidade jurídica de desfiliar do partido, isso vai ser feito a partir da criação da Aliança e uma representação judicial para possibilitar nossa saída sem perda de mandato”, afirmou Vitor Hugo.
A tese de perseguição política deve ser usada para justificar uma ação judicial.

“Nós repudiamos esse tribunal de exceção e queremos deixar claro que há uma perseguição àqueles que simplesmente manifestaram seu apoio irrestrito ao presidente Bolsonaro”, afirmou Bia Kicis.

Com informações da Folha de S. Paulo

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